Fears of a 2020 recession are largely unfounded – Scotiabank economist

Fears of a 2020 recession are largely unfounded – Scotiabank economist

Fears of a 2020 recession are largely unfounded – Scotiabank economist

Despite pressure from geopolitical tensions and global trade turmoil, a recession is not likely to manifest in Canada this year, according to a veteran economist.

Scotiabank vice president and deputy chief economist Brett House said that these factors will end up stifling economic growth slightly. The Conference Board of Canada has previously predicted a growth rate of 1.8% this year, just slightly above the 1.7% observed in 2019.

“Going into 2020, we think it’s going to be another year where the Canadian economy performs in kind of a ‘meh’ sort of way,” House told CTV News.

However, the markets observer assured that the widespread anxiety surrounding the nation’s economic health is mostly baseless.

“On the other hand, it’s not going to be the long feared recession that a lot of headlines have pointed to either. We have a lot of uncertainty out there … but we also have a lot of fundamental strengths that should keep growth going.”

Among the most notable of these bright spots are the vigorous employment figures and indicators of accelerating housing activity – to the point that supply in the largest markets is having trouble keeping up.

“Even though you see all the cranes up all over the place in Toronto and Vancouver, when you adjust the amount of supply that’s available to our populations in both cities, we still see a really, really tight inventory situation,” House explained.