Brokers question analyst’s knowledge

Brokers are poking holes in one analyst’s prediction that Canada’s housing market is in dire straits, accusing him of ignorance when it comes to Canada’s oil industry – and the economy’s reliance on it.

Brokers are poking holes in one analyst’s prediction that Canada’s housing market is in dire straits, accusing him of ignorance when it comes to Canada’s oil industry – and the economy’s reliance on it.

“He doesn't understand the oil market. The price of oil has plunged before and it will plunge again. Each time it bounces back. This time is especially different, though,” Hal Tagg of Realty Executives wrote on MortgageBrokerNews.ca. “This plunge was not cause by a global market, but rather by Saudi Arabia who wanted a larger market share.

“When the Saudis get a new agreement on production reductions that they want, effectively strengthening OPEC, then production will be reduced, and prices will bounce back up. $50 a barrel is not the new norm,” Tagg continued. “A 30 per cent price reduction in housing is laughable, even in Alberta.”

A flood of comments poured in following one pundit’s claim that Canada’s economy is one of the most at risk of a bubble burst in the world.

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He also believes housing prices could crash by up to 50 per cent.

“It’s not unreasonable that we could see house prices fall by 30 to 50 per cent,” Vikram Mansharamani, a global equity investor and lecturer at Yale University, told MBN sister publication, CREW Thursday. “It will pinch the entire economy and have an impact on consumers. There is a material risk that it will spread across the country.”

Brokers, however, are quick to point out the differences between Canada’s mortgage regulation and the United States’ prior to its own bubble burst.

“The U.S. housing market grew out of greed and lack of government regulations which cause its bubble and finally succumbed to these 2 factors and burst,” Pete Capitulo of Verico Riverside Mortgage Group wrote on MortgageBrokerNews.ca. “This is totally not the case with Canada.”