Your cross-Canada short-term housing forecast

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The Canadian Real Estate Association released its quarterly housing forecast. This is what brokers across the country need to know.

British Columbia and Ontario
At this point, it’s almost impossible to mention one without the other when talking about housing markets, what with Toronto and Vancouver leading the way in terms of price growth and sales.

That trend is expected to continue.

“Activity should begin to rebalance away from B.C. and Ontario, as supply shortages put upward pressure on home prices and constrain transactions even as housing demand remains strong in these provinces and interest rates remain low,” CREA said in its quarterly forecast. “Accordingly, sales activity over the second half of the year is expected to ease in B.C., Ontario and on a national basis.”

Oil Country
Good news for brokers in Alberta and Saskatchewan, who have had a tough go of things for the past two years, as a slight oil rebound is expected.

That should have a positive impact on the housing markets, according to CREA.

“Meanwhile, consumer confidence should begin to strengthen and begin drawing homebuyers off the sidelines in Alberta and Saskatchewan as oil prices improve and their economic prospects strengthen,” CREA said. “This should contribute to a modest rebound in sales activity for these provinces in 2017.”

‘Elsewhere’
Outside the major markets, CREA forecasts slight sales increases.

“Elsewhere, sales are forecast to rise in Manitoba (+7.1 per cent), Quebec (+5.1 per cent) and Nova Scotia (+5.8 per cent), reflecting anticipated economic improvements in these provinces,” CREA said. “In New Brunswick, strong home sales toward the end of last year and a weak start to 2016 is projected to result in a small annual decline in activity this year despite an anticipated improvement in its economic prospects.”

A lower Canadian dollar is expected to have a positive impact in Prince Edward Island, where sales are expected to reach forecasted records for 2016.

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