The slowdown brokers are now grappling with may prove less dramatic than feared, with the chief economist for TD Bank now predicting those new, tighter mortgage rules will slow home sales by as little as 5% over the rest of 2012.
That drop is in addition to an average price slash of 3 per cent the second half of 2012, says Craig Alexander. That trend should continue through to the early part of 2013..
The assessment also comes with projections of a rate hike, which will result in a price correction of 10% on the national average.
For brokers that suggests TD and other banks are prepared to hold the line on their fixed rate pricing over the next six months. Many industry veterans have anticipated a resurgence in the kind of rate war marking the first part of 2013.
It means that brokers may, in fact, have the competitive edge over bank branches, at least on rate, although there often remains a gap between the official posted rates and what road reps offer clients.
But, there`s little mistaking a cooling market, says Alexander.
In Toronto, the Toronto Real Estate Board is reporting that sales have tailed off by 12.5% since 2011, despite average prices increasing 6.5% to $479,095.
Vancouver was hit harder, as sales in that city dropped by 30.7 in August. Average prices also dipped slightly, falling 0.5% to $609,500.