“The housing sector is likely to remain a bright spot in 2015, but can be expected to cool next year as affordability continues to erode on the back of national home price growth that is outpacing income growth,” TD Economics’ Weekly Bottom Line, released late last week states.
The bank also argued that the record-low rate environment has finally bottomed out.
“With 5-year Government of Canada bond yields at around 80 bps, it’s hard to imagine rates going much lower,” the report argues.
And some brokers expect rates to remain stable until they are eventually raised.
“It’s really hard to say because we use a wide array of lenders, but I really don’t see rates pushing down,” David Jeffrey of Dominion Lending Centres
Edge Financial told MortgageBrokerNews.ca. “Rates are pretty low and promos may pop up here and there every once in a while.”
For the time being, however, industry players can expect an influx of clients who may have been waiting in the wings, biding their time before striking.
“Based on historical experience, mortgage rate changes of this magnitude can boost demand for housing by 10 per cent to 15 per cent over a 6-month period,” TD said in a prior report, released just after the Bank of Canada’s most recent rate cut Since existing home sales are up only 6 per cent year-to-date as of June, the past decline in mortgage rates are likely to feed through to demand for several more months.”
TD also considered a pent-up housing demand and a “significant” pool of buyers readying to jump into the current low-rate environment.
One big bank believes the housing market will continue to be a driving force for the Canadian economy, even despite predicted cooling in 2016.