Experts split on rate outlook

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Will there be a rate fluctuation in the next 30-45 days? It depends who you ask, with RateSupermarket.ca’s panel of experts did not reach a consensus this month.
 
“The reduction in bond yields and mortgage rates resulted from a softening of confidence about economic prospects. At this point, that weakening of confidence may have gone a bit too far (the U.S. economy is likely to continue it gradual improvement),” CAAMP’s chief economist, Will Dunning said as part of RateSupermarket.ca’s panel. “Therefore, it is possible that the recent drops in rates for five-year fixed rate mortgages may also have gone a bit too far.”
 
Dunning, along with True North president Dan Eisner and Dr. Ian Lee believe fixed rates will remain unchanged.
 
“As stated in previous Monthly Outlooks, the steady tightening of the mortgage underwriting rules has incrementally reduced demand for mortgage financing,” Dr. Ian Lee, program director at Carleton University said. “Moreover, the five-year bank of Canada bond yield is hovering around 1.4 per cent to 1.5 per cent, suggesting stability in the fixed rates for the near future.”
 
However, RateSupermarket’s own president, Kelvin Mangaroo and leading mortgage broker, Ron Butler, both believe fixed rates will drop in the next few weeks.
 
“Five-year bond yields have fallen to the lowest yet this year (below the 1.50 per cent range), and point to a downward trend among the lowest five-year fixed mortgage rates - we could see them falling below 2.79 per cent over the coming weeks,” Butler of Verico Butler Mortgage said.
 
For his part, Butler was also the one voice of dissent regarding fixed rates; while his fellow panel members unanimously forecasted stable variable rates, Butler believes they too will drop.
 
“Regarding the Prime rate, the Bank of Canada remains eternally unchanged on the overnight bank rate,” Butler said. “However, capital seems plentiful to the point where we may see five-year variable rates discounted to Prime - 0.75% all over the place over the next few weeks.”
  • Ron Butler on 2014-08-13 2:31:05 PM

    Just for the record, I don't think Prime Rate will change anytime soon and definitely not down; I thought the discount from Prime will improve on Variable products and it did. We have also seen 5 - year fixed fall to 2.74% and in high discount environment 2.69%

  • zoomortgage on 2014-08-13 7:07:51 PM

    2.74% as a bought down rate.

  • Ron Butler on 2014-08-13 7:12:51 PM

    @ zoomortgage............ it is true we are always buying down rates at our company but I have seen several brokers offering 2.74% Five Year Fixed.

  • Lior, Mortgage Edge on 2014-08-13 7:12:59 PM

    The potential for a rate increase over the next 2 years is very real. The reason for that is a resurgent U.S. economy which should help the Canadian economy pick up. The U.S. is pumping out a record amount of oil thanks to shale gas and fracking and we are starting to see much stronger economic output. In addition to quantitative easing being scaled back job openings are at a 13-year high and more U.S. companies are bringing jobs back from overseas thanks in part to more states passing right-to-work legislation. A strong U.S. economy is good news for the Canadian economy, not so good news for borrowers who have gotten used to incredibly low interest rates. For the time being don't expect any significant changes in interest rates. But 2 or 3 years down the road, provided the U.S. economy continues to strengthen and lift the Canadian economy, interest rates will begin to rise. The best way homeowners can protect themselves from interest rate shock once rates normalize is take advantage of today's low rates to prepay their mortgage and reduce the balance owing.

  • Ron Butler on 2014-08-13 7:16:35 PM

    @ Lior................. you may be absolutely right about rates two years from now however I was only asked to think about the month of August 2014.

  • David M on 2014-08-13 8:41:54 PM

    Correct me if I'm wrong but do do we not have a federal election next year? As such and the fact that the federal government has publicly declared that they will have a balanced budget or surplus for fiscal 2015 would lead me to believe that the rate will remain low

  • zoomortgage on 2014-08-13 8:52:52 PM

    I don't think the economy is all that great in the US, Retail sales are still low and the economists suggests that rates are being pushed back to the latter part of 2015. Meaning the growth the fed in the US was looking for, is not there yet.

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