The Canadian Real Esate Assocation (CREA) updated its forecast for home sales in Canada Monday and the new data points to a very modest sales increase for 2014 and 2015; indicating brokers may have a tougher time funding deals in the next 24 months.
“Sales are forecast to reach 463,700 units in 2014, representing an increase of 1.3 per cent from 2013,” an official statement from CREA states. “This would place sales in line with their 10-year average, and hold national activity to within fairly short reach of the 450,000 mark for the seventh straight year.”
CREA also extended the outlook to 2015, which is expected to see an even more modest increase than 2014 year-over-year; however, one major market is expected to boom next year.
“In 2015, national activity is forecast to edge up a further 1.2 per cent to 469,400 units. Affordability is expected to restrain activity in Canada's most expensive markets, with annual sales forecast to decline marginally in British Columbia, and hold just below 200,000 units in Ontario for the fourth consecutive year,” the report states. “Alberta is the notable exception, where it is anticipated that strong economic and job growth combined with supportive demographic trends will result in strengthening annual sales activity.”
Despite British Columbia's expected decline in sales, the province is still expected to be a major contributor to the increase in home sales.
“British Columbia is forecast to post the largest year-over-year increase in activity (8.3 per cent), and make the biggest contribution to the increase in national sales activity,” the report states. “The increase in 2014 sales activity reflects slow sales for the province in early 2013 and a replay of that weakness is not expected this year.
“Annual changes in activity in other provinces are forecast to range between plus and minus three per cent in 2014 with the exception of a slightly larger decline in Nova Scotia