CREA revises 2010 forecast

CREA revises 2010 forecast

Canadian resale home prices will be lower than previously predicted, according to revisions made by CREA to its 2010 forecast, due in large part to B.C. sales.

"Lower expected activity in British Columbia accounts for more than half of the downward revision in national sales activity," the group said in a release.


CREA cut its sales view to 490,600 units from their previous figure of 527,300. It also expects the average price to rise 1.6 per cent nationally in 2010, an almost four per cent drop from its previous forecast of 5.4 per cent.

According to the industry group, the decline in affordability in B.C. hurt sales in the province during Q1, but added sales in Ontario were on point with their predictions.

CREA now expects sales in B.C. to fall 5.9 per cent this year to 80,000 units.

2 Comments
  • Ted Jones 2010-06-04 1:43:14 AM
    It is very interesting to hear that the CREA along with other notables are just now figuring out the impact of the Conservative Government's ill thought out plan. Decisions altering the NHA's policy to use off sets of 80% in favour of a 50% add to income policy for dealing with homes with suites is a monumental shift in the affordability of homes in British Columbia. This policy change (and believe me I have been trying desparately to rationalize why the Government forced the change) has meant that home buyers who previously could afford the average price $630,000 in Victoria, Vancouver and Kelowna market places can only "qualify" for about $320,000 today. The CREA in 6 months time will be revising their estimates on resales even downwards both on price (at least a 10% decrease and sales) in these markets. This decision coupled with Mr Campbell's decision to implement the HST will cripple the new home market for at least 6 months. First Time home buyers and those who would normally be moving up, will be out of the market. When the new buyers are unable to get into the market, the upper market has no where to go, but down. Thank you Mr Harper and Campbell! Job well done!
    PS: At least it is good to see that the Banks are netting $5.9 billion per quarter with their artifically high spreads
    Post a reply
  • mortgage needs 2010-06-04 8:04:08 AM
    and so give us a more sustainable housing market.
    Debt is debt, no matter how low interest rates may be on a historical basis.
    And historically, homeowners build up a nice retirement nest egg over the very long term. This may change if housing affordability is continually eroded to the point where your upfront costs will take up to 40 years to amortize.
    Post a reply