CREA: housing drop will be less severe

CREA: housing drop will be less severe

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has revised its 2011 forecast, following a stronger-than-expected rebound in sales during the second half of 2010.

CREA now expects national home sales to only decline by 1.6 per cent to 439,900, up from its previous forecast in November 2010 that projected sales would decline by nine per cent.

In 2012, national sales are expected to rebound by three per cent to 453,300 units, keeping the country’s real estate activity roughly on par with the 10-year average.

The association also revised its forecast for the national average price, projecting it will rise 1.3 per cent to $343,000 in 2011, up from its previous forecast in November of a 1.3 per cent decline.

Average prices in all provinces are expected “to rise modestly” even as inventories continue to expand, the association said in a statement released Tues. Feb. 8.

But real estate activity will dip in the second quarter of 2011 as a result of above-normal sales levels in the first quarter, according to Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist.

“The announcement of the new changes to mortgage regulations will likely bring forward some sales into the first quarter that would have otherwise occurred later in the year, particularly in some of Canada’s more expensive housing markets. This is expected to produce a milder version of the volatility in sales activity that we saw last year which resulted from additional transitory factors,” he said in a statement.

1 Comments
  • theletterM 2011-02-17 3:29:34 AM
    Average incomes can no longer afford average houses in most Canadian cities.

    The government has sold out Canadians with shortsighted policies that drove up prices exponentially over the last 5-8 years. (Policies that "didn't create" a bubble that "doesn't exist", according to Finance Minister Jim Flaherty.)

    Growth for the sake of growth will always be corrected...eventually. Just ask the Americans.

    It will be ugly, mark my words. Ignorant boomers trying to sell their decrepit bungalows for record profit will only add to the mayhem.
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