CMHC signals end of housing boom

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The housing market will begin moderating in 2015 and continue to do so until 2017, the Crown Corporation said in its Q4 Housing Market Outlook, released Monday. That kind of trend will lead to a greater focus on refi business, according to one broker.

“We follow the market as it goes and try to go about business as usual,” Derek Sherbinin, broker/owner of Centum Mortgage Store in Castlegar, B.C., told “What we do is we focus a lot on renewals and make sure our clients are taken care of.”

According to the CMHC, housing starts are expected to moderate over the next few years, which could lead to a drop in originations for brokers. But, as Sherbinin points out, there will still be opportunities for industry players to tap into the refi market.

“In 2015, increased housing market activity in provinces such as Ontario and British Columbia – provinces that have benefitted from declining energy prices, a lower Canadian dollar and continued low mortgage rates – offset slowdowns in oil-producing provinces like Alberta,” said Bob Dugan, CMHC’s chief economist, in a statement. “We expect, however, that this counterbalancing effect will decrease over time. As such, housing starts and (multiple listing service) sales are projected to moderate in 2016 and 2017.”

The Crown corporation also predicts new home construction to slow over the next few years as high levels of unsold units encourage developers to focus on selling existing inventory.

Home price growth is also expected to slow.

“For 2015, housing starts are expected to range between 162,000 and 212,000 units in 2015, with a point forecast of 186,900 units,” CMHC said in a release. “For 2016, housing starts are forecast to range from 153,000 units to 203,000 units, with a point forecast of 178,150 units.

“In 2017, we expect starts to range between 149,000 and 199,000 units, with a point forecast of 173,650 units.”
  • Gia on 2015-10-27 10:48:07 AM


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