CMHC forecast: Atlantic Canada

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The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) released its fourth quarter housing outlook last week and in part four of our four-part series we take a look at what the organization foresees for Atlantic Canada.

New Brunswick

The province is expected to see weak GDP growth with 0.2 per cent expected in 2013 and just under one per cent in 2014.

Single starts

A decline to 1,230 units in 2013 and 1,170 in 2014 are expected, respectively, as a result of unsavoury employment conditions.

Multiple starts

Following the trend, multiple-family unit starts are expected to drop as well; 10 1,300 in 2013 and 1,010 units in 2014.

“Developers are expected to begin pulling back in new rental projects, reducing apartment starts to levels not seen since 2009,” the report stated.

Nova Scotia

Expected to fair slightly better than its next-door neighbour, Nova Scotia’s economy is expected to grow one per cent in 2013 and 1.2 per cent in 2014.

Single starts

Due to the lack of employment growth, single-family unit starts are expected to drop to 1,725 in 2013 and 1,775 in 2014.

Multiple starts

Multiple-family starts are expected to eclipse singles in 2013 (2,240) and 2014 (2,250).

Prince Edward Island

Tourism and manufacturing are expected to contribute to the province’s GDP growth, with Prince Edward Island expected to grow by 1.5 per cent in 2013 and 1.3 per cent in 2014, respectively.

Single starts

2013 is expected to see a decline to 310 units with 2014 declining even further to 300.

Multiple starts

Starts are expected to slow as the market mops up the oversaturation of existing units. 2013 is expected to see 425 units and 2014 will see a drop to 350 units.

Newfoundland & Labrador

The province is expected to see the most economic growth among Atlantic Provinces in 2013 (four per cent) before moderating to 1.8 per cent in 2014.

Single starts

“Steady, but slower population growth in 2013 and 2014, coupled with a slowdown in the outlook for employment in 2013 and 2014, will reduce the demand for housing,” the report stated.

2013 is expected to see 2,350 single-family starts and 2014, 2,325.

Multiple starts

A decline is expected for 2013 (575 units) before ticking up once again in 2014 (675).

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