Brokers breathe sigh of relief with market projection

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Brokers may have finally seen the worst of any slowdown in business, with CMHC projecting existing home sales will hold steady, even as new building starts drop off.

“A weaker outlook for global economic conditions…will bring moderation in housing starts next year,” according to Mathieu Laberge, deputy chief economist for CMHC, but “resale market conditions for the remainder of 2012 and 2013 are expected to be balanced in most local markets.”

If the Crown corp is correct, housing starts for 2013 will be 193,600 units compared to the 213,700 in 2012. But resale numbers for 2013 are expected to come in at 461,500 units, compared to 457,400 for this year, according to the report.

That last projection is good news for brokers, whose fortunes are more closely tied to existing home sales, said one analyst Friday.

The CMHC also forecasts average MLS price in 2013 to run between $363,100 and $377,900 for 2013, compared to $363,200 and $367,000 this year representing an average price gain of 1.5 per cent for 2013 and 0.2 per cent for 2012.

Improving employment conditions and net migration is expected to help support the Canadian housing market with some provinces benefiting more than others from the influx of new residents, according to the report.

“Ontario, British Columbian and Alberta will see the largest gains further supporting housing in these regions,” the CMHC said. “Additionally, new immigrants enter the rental market before moving to home ownership…this is expected to be supportive of demand for rental apartments and rental condominium units.”

 

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