BoC rate announced

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The Central Bank announced its overnight rate target Wednesday.

The Bank of Canada is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 0.5%.

Economic growth is now projected to be lower than previously forecast in July’s Monetary Policy Report.

“This is due in large part to slower near-term housing resale activity and a lower trajectory for exports. The federal government’s new measures to promote stability in Canada’s housing market are likely to restrain residential investment while dampening household vulnerabilities,” the Bank said.

Export data is improving, according to the Bank, but growth will be slower over the next two years than previously forecasted, due in part to lower global demand.

“After incorporating these weaker elements, Canada’s economy is still expected to grow at a rate above potential starting in the second half of 2016, supported by accommodative monetary and financial conditions and federal fiscal measures,” the BoC said. “As the economy continues to adjust to the oil price shock, investment in the energy sector appears to be bottoming out.”

Household spending is on the rise, as well as employment and incomes outside energy-reliant regions.

The Bank forecasts real GDP growth of 1.1% this year and “about” 2% in 2017 and 2018.

It now projects the economy will return to full capacity by mid-2018, which is much later than the original forecast of July 2016.

“Given the downward revision to the growth profile and the later closing of the output gap, the Bank considers the risks around its updated inflation outlook to be roughly balanced, albeit in a context of heightened uncertainty,” the BoC said. “Meanwhile, the new housing measures should mitigate risks to the financial system over time.

“At present, the Bank’s Governing Council judges that the overall balance of risks is still in the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.”
  • jimmyb99 on 2016-10-19 10:57:24 AM

    The great part of being in Government or being an Economist, is you are really just guessing. Is Anyway held accountable when you are wrong? "It now projects the economy will return to full capacity by mid-2018, which is much later than the original forecast of July 2016" .... No. You just redo all of your models and throw it against the wall again.

  • Susie on 2016-10-19 11:07:09 AM

    Right Jimmy....where's the crystal ball?? I don't think we're going to see much positive change until our next election. Which can't come soon enough.

  • Michael Mitchell on 2016-10-19 11:20:02 AM

    How can they think for a moment that the economy will grow.We have yet to the full fallout of the diminished trade that will result from the Brex loss as it has already reduced trade with the U.K. facor in the negative growth in the trade balance with our largest trading partner U.S.A..Combine that with all of the bus. going out of bus. nd job loss in Ontario from the highest hydro rates in North Amercia ,Highest and growing budget deficit in Ontario and with Alberta soon to follow.We re becoming a third world economy.

  • Risk Girl on 2016-10-19 11:20:39 AM

    Couldn't agree with you more Jimmy and Susie

  • Kelly Rowe on 2016-10-19 11:47:23 AM

    I will be surprised to see any positive growth by 2018 nevermind the economy actually recovering. And I agree with Susie I can't wait for the next three years to be over with

  • Michele Hall on 2016-10-19 1:19:03 PM

    How do they call this a prediction when they put the measures in place to slow the housing market and slow growth ? Calling BS on this one !!!

  • Kris Kooblall on 2016-10-19 5:40:26 PM

    Canada's National Housing Crisis

    We are in a national housing crisis and all hands needs to be on deck to bring this back to where it needs to be.

    The Bank of Canada has just released their report today at 10:00 a.m EST on maintaining the overnight lending rate and their Monetary Policy Report.

    Given the relatively very modest growth levels on the U.S, Canadian, European, U.K with regard to the economic outlook generally, the expectation is that there are no huge and significant increases expected anywhere in these markets within the next few years.

    The BOC in their Monetary Report today has said:

    Residential investment was strong in the first half of 2016, particularly in
    the housing markets in British Columbia and Ontario. A slowdown in resale
    activity in British Columbia that began in May intensified in August. An
    additional property transfer tax for foreign buyers in the Greater Vancouver
    Regional District was also introduced in August. Nonetheless, prices in
    Vancouver remain elevated, and resale activity and housing starts continue
    to be robust in the Greater Toronto Area. The recently announced federal
    measures to promote stability in the housing market are expected to lead to
    weaker resale activity in the near term and a modest change in the composition
    of residential construction toward smaller units.

    The initial indications are that the BOC may, in fact, look towards revising the overnight lending rate on December 7th, downwards as the recent sweeping changes by the Federal Government in the real estate and mortgage industries may placate some of the risks of a potential downturn in the economy.

    Let us focus our attention on getting our housing crisis in perspective and completely solved with the provinces and municipalities getting on board with the federal government.

  • James Smythe on 2016-10-19 8:40:06 PM

    What we know is that the government has made policy that has eliminated inventory in the housing market, assaulted the fundamentals of the banking system, caused the escalating housing prices through restrictive legislation, and hurt Canadians again.
    At some point it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that increasing supply by allowing a normal market to re establish with the easing of government controls. At that point the government could re-establish interest rates policy as the way to steer the market would solve the pricing problems. Unfortunately that seems a step beyond Ottawa.

  • James Smythe on 2016-10-19 8:44:12 PM

    What we know is that the government has made policy that has eliminated inventory in the housing market, assaulted the fundamentals of the banking system, caused the escalating housing prices through restrictive legislation, and hurt Canadians again.
    At some point it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that increasing supply by allowing a normal market to re establish with the easing of government controls would solve the real issues that are driving the current market.

    Just as important, at that point, the government could re-establish interest rate policy as the way to steer the economy. Unfortunately that seems a step beyond Ottawa.

  • James Smythe on 2016-10-19 8:44:37 PM

    What we know is that the government has made policy that has eliminated inventory in the housing market, assaulted the fundamentals of the banking system, caused the escalating housing prices through restrictive legislation, and hurt Canadians again.
    At some point it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that increasing supply by allowing a normal market to re establish with the easing of government controls would solve the real issues that are driving the current market.

    Just as important, at that point, the government could re-establish interest rate policy as the way to steer the economy. Unfortunately that seems a step beyond Ottawa.

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