BoC new approach neglects important data

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The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Stephen Poloz, stated Monday the central bank will now consider “anecdotal evidence” along with economic data when making its decisions; an approach that one leading broker believes will not aid in considering global effects on the Canadian economy.

“Although Mr. Poloz's anecdotal approach may help yield a better understanding of the Canadian mindset as it relates to the economy, I'm not so sure it's going to help much on the prediction front as a result of the ties Canada has with the rest of the world, and the many forces that affect the direction it takes,” John Bargis of Mortgage Edge told MortgageBrokerNews.ca.
 
The Bank of Canada indicated computer models and data will be relied upon less while surveys, discussions and meetings will have a greater impact.
 
"We are working hard to refine those models, but this experience is also leading us to put increased emphasis on anecdotal evidence – real conversations with real Canadians making real economic decisions," Poloz said in the Bank of Canada’s annual report.

It may be advantageous for the BoC to consider the thoughts and opinions of financial services professionals and organizations that are on the frontlines. However, Canada is very much tied to a number of foreign economies, making predictions all the more difficult.

“We are very much a part of the vastly competitive Global economy, which makes any Central Bank's predictions all the more difficult," Bargis said. "Let’s look at how many times Governor Carney over the last 5 years of his term warned Canadians to strap themselves in, in anticipation of rising interest rates. Of course we all know what followed - B-20 and the soon to be implemented B-21 in lieu of."
 
 
  • Steve Clark on 2014-04-02 1:12:43 PM

    How can anecdotal evidence be a bad thing? Polozi isn't saying he is neglecting the vital information. He is saying he will add common sense and practicality to decisions as well as data. It is a model for other branches of government.

  • Blair Anderson on 2014-04-02 3:12:34 PM

    I can think of another use of good ol’ common sense...mortgage underwriting. When I was schooled, there was 5-Cs to mortgage underwriting: Cash, Credit, Character, Collateral, and yes, Common Sense. I hope there’s enough to go around. Bring it on!

  • Shawn Allen | Matrix Mortgage Global on 2014-04-02 11:20:03 PM

    The global economy is out of control and the government is adjusting they way the numbers are being reported.

    Did you know that according to Stats Canada, the definition for unemployment is classified as "People Actively Looking For Work". People who have stopped looking for work are no longer classified as unemployed?

    Canada's unemployment rate based on this unit of measure is a modest 7%, however if you include those that have stopped looking for work the number is around 15%-20%.

    That's HUGE

    People really need to understand the economy and stop relying on numbers given to you. You must do the research yourself, then you will see that we are in for a rough ride ahead.

    Brace yourself, stay educated.

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