BMO: Newfoundland and Labrador to slip into recession

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Economists at BMO Nesbitt Burns forecast that Newfoundland and Labrador will slip into recession this year but Alberta will narrowly avoid one. Sal Guatieri wrote in a client note that BMO expects the national economy to slide by half of one per cent this year but that the oil producing provinces will be hardest hit. With NL and Alberta flat or lower Saskatchewan will avoid recession but slow to 1 per cent according to the report. With oil prices having rebounded from earlier lows there is some better news in the outlook; it’s expected that the national economy will grow by 2 per cent for the year with potentially stronger growth next year. 
  • Darr Robbins on 2015-05-12 7:02:37 AM

    Statistics Canada said on Thursday April 30th that real gross domestic product was unchanged in February from January, but it also said the economy shrank more in January than originally reported. The federal agency revised its reading for January to a loss of 0.2 per cent from its initial estimate of a drop of 0.1 per cent. BTW: Unchanged means "Zero Growth" for February and "Negative" -0.2% for January.

    Don't be surprised if February is revised downwards later. Governor Poloz, as we know was forecasting 1.5% for Q1. After revision, he'll be lucky if Stats Can can cook the numbers to show 0.0%.
    His 2015 forecast is pie in the sky. Governor Poloz (and bank economists) are either the worst economists on the planet or the greatest liars!


  • Darr Robbins on 2015-05-12 9:34:46 AM

    Let's be careful not to infer that rising oil prices are a reflection of stronger demand. It is not.
    Oil inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma are still rising as reported here:

    Until further notice, oil is prices in US dollars. It is in fact a declining USD that is causing the rise in oil prices as shown by the diverging lines representing the USD index and the WTI (in red) :

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