Analyst questions CREA stats

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“CREA noted that to arrive at 9,289 they had to remove partial totals of reporting overlap from some boards  -- specifically TREB -- (but) they failed to remove all of listings directly tied to that disclosure and the result was a remaining over reporting of 6.5 per cent for this one issue alone,” Kay said. “When you adjust the 2013 January count using the same criteria you have Ontario January 2014 as a 7.7% decrease versus 2013.

“I know that is not a large difference (only another 1.5%) but this is on one issue alone in one province.”

Kay’s firm claims to be “independent of any and all fiduciary duties related to MLS system data, allowing for full independence, open and full disclosure and finally data review that is statistically valid” and he claims to be the only analyst who doesn’t use CREA’s data.

“Will Dunning is used by CAAMP and Will uses the numbers right from the Canadian Real Estate Association,” Kay said. “Every analyst uses CREA’s data; we’re the only who doesn’t use CREA’s data, we use our own, so when we’re making a comment it is factual – my entire reputation is the name of the company."

And according to Kay, relying on CREA's numbers has caused inflation in prices and an unnecessary fervor for homeownership in Canada.

“In terms of looking at the market realistically, trying to extrapolate any trends, trying to forward predict what is happening, trying to make some common sense of the absurdity of the market that we see right now; there is no logical sense that buyers are running out there on declining volumes and entering bidding wars,” Kay said. “The only reason they are doing that is because they are being told the market is busier than what it is.

“We’re in a full-blown housing bubble we haven’t seen since 1990 and I only started using that term in January of this year.”


Slow start to 2014 for industry professionals

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  • Dave , Broker on 2014-03-06 9:00:45 AM

    Ross is totally CORRECT. CREA and TREB have been duping people for years. Just look at this below...

    TORONTO, March 5, 2014 — Toronto Real Estate Board President Dianne Usher announced that February 2014 home sales reported by Greater Toronto Area were up by 2.1 per cent compared to the same period last year. Total February sales amounted to 5,731 compared to 5,613 last year.

    Hmmm. Here’s the monthly report from one year ago:

    TORONTO, March 5, 2013 — Greater Toronto Area (GTA) reported 5,759 sales through the system in February 2013 – a decline of 15 per cent in comparison to February 2012.

    Check those numbers :) Do the math ....

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